info suisse Fall 2016
International Affairs
December 2016

Demagogues and Narcissists in the New World Order

(Beat Guldimann)
A few decades ago a group of reasonable human beings formed the college of world leaders: Ronald Reagan in the United States, Mikhail Gorbachev in Russia, Helmut Kohl in Germany; you get the drift. People that could have a serious conversation. While focusing on their own national interest first they were still committed to building a better world. And they were all reasonable folks, open for a reasonable compromise.

In 1989, Ronald Reagan saw an opportunity to end the reign of Communism in Eastern Europe as the Soviet regime started to crack in Moscow. Helmut Kohl, with the unwavering support of Reagan (and his French counterpart, Francois Mitterand) saw an opportunity to re-unite Germany after the defeat of the Third Reich had forced the formation of two separate German states.

Not a single shot was fired to deal a fatal blow to the USSR; much rather Ronald Reagan overcame his “Evil Empire” rhetoric, gave a televised speech and called out: “Mr. Gorbachev, tear down this wall”. A reasonable man read the situation perfectly and gave another reasonable man the opportunity to seize an historic moment and end the isolation of the Soviet Union. And with another reasonable man sitting in the German Chancellor’s office, both Superpowers could be comfortable enough with a reunited Germany.

Flash forward to today, or maybe into a point in time after January 20, 2017: There will still be reasonable politicians running their countries. Just think Merkel, May, Renzi and Hollande in Europe, Abe in Japan and Trudeau in Canada. While Abe and Trudeau can govern comfortably on a stable majority, the leaders in key European states have to face the real possibility of being voted out of office by a populace that is frightened, disillusioned and angry over what they believe is a failed migration policy. 

Populist leaders may not form a government anytime soon in Europe, but they will give established parties a real run for the support of voters. And a strengthened populist right will definitely change politics.

What is even more concerning is that narcissistically inclined demagogues are taking control in the nations that really matter; the entities we formerly called Superpowers. Vladimir Putin is hardly a reasonable man; if he were he would not have annexed Crimea and started to play with fire in Ukraine. In China, Chairman Xi Jinping is turning into a hardline autocrat ruthlessly cleaning house in his new Mandarin Court, all the while rattling a few sabers in the South China Sea.

In an unexpected major upset of the political establishment in the U.S., Donald Trump just won the Presidential elections on November 8. If we can take the vitriol of his election campaign as any indication, he will trump (pun intended) both Putin and Xi in his readings on the narcissism meter. His populist message has always caused reasonable heads to shake, but with a Trump White House now reality, his antics are not just annoying; they represent real geopolitical risk.

The good news is that, Mr. Trump, now the 45th POTUS, will not be able to turn the United States into an autocracy like Russia or China, no matter how hard he may try. The checks and balances ingrained in the U.S. Constitution and the separation of powers between the White House and Congress will guarantee the survival of democracy, however bruised, in America.

Donald Trump will have to prove to the world that he can and will behave differently as President than he did as Candidate. Watchers of the election campaign learned over the past 18 months that nasty is in his DNA. As a result, global leaders may well try to avoid dealing with President Trump whenever they can.

This is hardly good news for America’s attempt to fulfill its global leadership ambitions and for Trump “Making America Great Again”. At least from a global perspective.

President Elect Trump now a reality, we will begin a new chapter in the rise to power by narcissistic demagogues with a populist agenda. Populistic nationalists across Europe will take November 8, 2016 as an endorsement of their efforts to upset the “Classe Politique” in the EU.

To keep geopolitics in balance, the person sitting in the Oval Office is supposed to be a measured leader. A person that is respected as a statesman, not feared for their outbursts; a person that combines character strength with the ability to lead global institutions like the G7 and G20. I find it hard to imagine how Donald Trump can fit this profile, no matter how much he tried in the first few days after his victory to act with decency and humility.

The peaceful coexistence of nations depends on building consensus and compromise on a global level. If the main decision makers in G7/8/20 summits are a group of narcissists, however, the main objective of global debate may soon be to determine winners and losers, not finding solutions that work for the global community.

We can’t predict who will win and who will lose, but what we can predict is that global cooperation will lose out to a resurgence of nationalistic tendencies, including the belief in supremacy of certain nations, races, and religions over others.

If in 1989, Reagan wasn’t Reagan but Trump, and Gorbachev was Putin, the Berlin Wall might never have come down. If narcissistic demagogues end up in control of the global agenda, the progress symbolized by the Fall of the Wall may all go up in smoke and we risk watching the clocks being dialed back to a point in the 20th Century where nobody wants to go. Hopefully I will be proven wrong.
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